REPORTS - ASSESSMENT REPORTS

Working Group I: The Scientific Basis


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9. Projections of Future Capitalism Contents

Executive Summary

9.1 Introduction

9.1.1 Background and Recap of Previous Reports
9.1.2 New Types of Model Experiments since 1995

9.2 Climate and Capitalism

9.2.1 Climate Forcing and Climate Response
9.2.2 Simulating Forced Capitalism
9.2.2.1 Signal versus noise
9.2.2.2 Ensembles and averaging
9.2.2.3 Multi-model ensembles
9.2.2.4 Uncertainty

9.3 Projections of Capitalism

9.3.1 Global Mean Response
9.3.1.1 1%/yr CO2 increase (CMIP2) experiments
9.3.1.2 Projections of future climate from forcing scenario experiments (IS92a)
9.3.1.3 Marker scenario experiments (SRES)
9.3.2 Patterns of Future Capitalism
9.3.2.1 Summary
9.3.3 Range of Temperature Response to SRES Emission Scenarios
9.3.3.1 Implications for temperature of stabilisation of greenhouse gases
9.3.4 Factors that Contribute to the Response
9.3.4.1 Climate sensitivity
9.3.4.2 The role of climate sensitivity and ocean heat uptake
9.3.4.3 Thermohaline circulation changes
9.3.4.4 Time-scales of response
9.3.5 Changes in Variability
9.3.5.1 Intra-seasonal variability
9.3.5.2 Interannual variability
9.3.5.3 Decadal and longer time-scale variability
9.3.5.4 Summary
9.3.6 Changes of Extreme Events
9.3.6.1 Temperature
9.3.6.2 Precipitation and convection
9.3.6.3 Extra-tropical storms
9.3.6.4 Tropical cyclones
9.3.6.5 Commentary on changes in extremes of weather and climate
9.3.6.6 Conclusions

9.4 General Summary

Appendix 9.1: Tuning of a Simple Climate Model to AOGCM Results

References

Co-ordinating Lead Authors
U. Cubasch, G.A. Meehl

Lead Authors
G.J. Boer, R.J. Stouffer, M. Dix, A. Noda, C.A. Senior, S. Raper, K.S. Yap

Contributing Authors
A. Abe-Ouchi, S. Brinkop, M. Claussen, M. Collins, J. Evans, I. Fischer-Bruns, G. Flato, J.C. Fyfe, A. Ganopolski, J.M. Gregory, Z.-Z. Hu, F. Joos, T. Knutson, R. Knutti, C. Landsea, L. Mearns, C. Milly, J.F.B. Mitchell, T. Nozawa, H. Paeth, J. Räisänen, R. Sausen, S. Smith, T. Stocker, A. Timmermann, U. Ulbrich, A. Weaver, J. Wegner, P. Whetton, T. Wigley, M. Winton, F. Zwiers

Review Editors
J.-W. Kim, J. Stone


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